DPRK Deja Vu

By Fraser Cameron

9 July 2018

DPRK – Deja Vu 

‘We have seen it all before’ - was the judgement of veteran DPRK watcher, Victor Cha, after the DPRK began stonewalling during Mike Pompeo’s latest trip to Pyongyang. Cha was one of many experts who expressed disbelief at the paucity of the Singapore statement after the Trump-Kim summit. 

Trump was pleased at his photo op that he tweeted ‘there is no more nuclear threat from North Korea.’ At home he basked in a sudden surge in popularity. The great dealmaker had triumphed where his predecessors had failed. ‘Rocket Man’ was suddenly ‘a good guy.’ There was no longer any need for US-South Korea joint military exercises. Trump even agreed that these were ‘provocative’ – language used by the DPRK for years.

The summit of the year: US-North Korea

By Fraser Cameron

12 June 2018

Denuclearisation will be a big subject for discussion between Presidents Trump and Kim Jong-un at the June 12 summit in Singapore. But both leaders have mercurial personalities and vastly different expectations about the outcome, writes Fraser Cameron

Indonesia Matters

By Mascha Peters

1 June 2018

There are many reasons why Indonesia matters to the EU. Its size in land and people - Indonesia is the world’s largest island state with the world’s fourth largest population – corresponds with an unparalleled ethnical and religious diversity with over 300 ethnic and language groups in what is the world’s largest Muslim majority nation-state and the third largest democracy. 

On 9 July 2014 Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was elected as Indonesia’s seventh president. His victory - the narrowest since the end of the Suharto regime in 1998 (53% against 47% for his opponent, Prabowo Subianto) - raised expectations from the outset: The former Governor of Jakarta is the first Indonesian president without a high-ranking political or military background. Born in 1961 of Javanese origin, he studied forestry and ran a furniture factory before entering politics. A party outsider, he rose to power on the back of personal charisma and his reputation as a clean politician. His promise of change earned him the support of Indonesia’s large youth population; and next to Modi in India he was celebrated as Asia’s rising star.

Book review: Chinese Assertiveness in the South China Sea by Richard Turcsányi

By Ariane Combal-Weiss

24 May 2018

Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea (SCS) is a buzzword in the Asian strategic landscape. Perhaps only the DPRK nuclear crisis can compete among the top challenges to the ‘rules-based international order’ in Asia. But China’s rise and involvement in the SCS have a particular meaning, as they are major factors in the global power shifts of the 21st century. Yet the very notion of China’s ‘assertiveness’ is often taken for granted. The rationales, the characteristics and the factors underpinning Chinese growing assertiveness are rarely investigated. This is the gap Richard Turcsányi fills in his new study of Chinese behaviour in the SCS.

EU fighting a lone battle for human rights in Asia

By Fraser Cameron

17 April 2018

The European Union has a long tradition of promoting democracy and human rights in Asia, often in informal cooperation with the United States. Until 2014, it seemed that things were moving in the right direction, but since then there has been backsliding in China and several Southeast Asian countries. Xi Jinping has tightened control in China, the military endures in Thailand, Duterte’s drug purge is ongoing in the Philippines, the Tatmadaw commits ethnic cleansing in Myanmar, Hun Sen and his party have dissolved the opposition in Cambodia, and so on.

China’s Arctic Policy

By Ariane Combal-Weiss

13 April 2018

China has released its first-ever Arctic policy white paper, outlining its future priorities including better understanding, protection and development of the region in addition to participating in its governance. Its approach is remarkably similar to that of the EU which has a strong emphasis on the environment and agreed international rules of behaviour. Inevitably the Chinese strategy has been dubbed the ‘Polar Silk Road’ and seen as part of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. 

Asia’s Trade Spaghetti Bowl -TPP11 and RCEP

By Dandan Wan

6 April 2018

Dubbed the TPP-11, the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) was signed by the remaining 11 TPP members on 8 March in Chile exactly one year after President Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement. Although the US exit reduced the size of the deal, which originally represented 40 percent of the global economy worth US $28 trillion[1], the new agreement strikes a blow against protectionism and reaffirms the members’ commitment to greater trade liberalization and regional integration in the Asia-Pacific.

EU-Asia cooperation on plastics

By Ariane Combal-Weiss

3 April 2018

Both the EU and Asia are facing a massive problem of how to tackle plastic pollution. Plastics are a part of our daily lives and have brought about a revolution in sanitation and food sectors. But their carbon footprint is a disaster for our environment, including the oceans. 

President Xi cements control

By Dandan Wan

29 March 2018

The highlight of the 13^th National People’s Congress this month was the amendment to the constitution removing the two terms limits on the presidency thus allowing Xi Jinping to remain in office for a third term. President Xi also consolidated his power by ensuring that his supporters were appointed to top state and government positions. Despite his exclusion from the Politburo standing committee last October due to age limits, Wang Qishan, the former anti-graft tsar and Xi’s longstanding ally, was elected as Vice President. He is expected to be in charge of China’s global interests, especially the hot issue of dealing with the Trump administration amid the looming Sino-US trade war. This appointment is significant since the end of term limits extends to the Vice President. Li Zhanshu, the most trusted ally of Xi, took the helm of the national legislature body (NPC) to pursue China’s ongoing legal reform. Liu He, another Xi confidante and key economic advisor, was elevated to one of the four Vice Premiers under Li Keqiang.

China and Japan rivalry in ASEAN

By Dandan Wan

23 February 2018

As the 600m strong Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) becomes more cohesive as a political and economic actor, Japan and China are competing for influence within the bloc. In the past 20 years, ASEAN has made steady progress in promoting regional integration. It has established the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), East Asia’s first multilateral security dialogue the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asian Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Plus frameworks with various partners including the EU.